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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 21

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 23

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 8-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.66 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model