Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 82

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 30

(2:27) 5-J.Townsend punts 42 yards to CIN 40, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 82, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model