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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 93

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to LV 45, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.20 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 93, worth -5.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -3.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 51, worth -3.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model