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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 6

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

What Actually Happened

(:13) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +5.63 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model