Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to TB: Lamar Jackson (BAL) -0.116 vs Jameis Winston (TB) +0.158 EPA/dropback
- BAL offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- TB offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
TB
BAL
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 12:12 TD TB (12:12) 61-L.Wester reported in as eligible. 25-P.Barber left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – BAL 0
- Q2 04:03 TD BAL (4:03) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 10-C.Moore for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Shovel pass TB 6 – BAL 6
- Q2 01:50 FG TB (1:50) 5-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 9 – BAL 7
- Q2 00:13 FG BAL (:13) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. TB 9 – BAL 10
- Q3 10:07 TD BAL (10:07) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – BAL 16
- Q3 05:46 FG TB (5:46) 5-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 12 – BAL 17
- Q4 13:37 FG BAL (13:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. TB 12 – BAL 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 38%
(12:57) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Touchback. PENALTY on TB-89-G.Sanborn, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(11:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 29 yards to TB 36, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds. PENALTY on TB-57-N.Spence, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 36.
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Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(8:37) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 38 yards to BAL 21, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(7:07) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to TB 13, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
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Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(4:18) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to BAL 25, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-85-B.Wilson.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 7Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%
(5:22) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to TB 2 for 5 yards (30-J.Shaw).
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Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%
(1:50) 5-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 6Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(:13) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
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Q3 TB 4th & 7 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 30%
(7:59) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 30 yards to BAL 17, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 27-C.Jones MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-30-J.Shaw at BAL 14. 30-J.Shaw to BAL 14 for no gain (27-C.Jones).
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Q3 TB 4th & 5 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%
(5:46) 5-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 4 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 92%
(13:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
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Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 67%
(7:12) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Godwin (29-M.Humphrey).