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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 47

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(7:59) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 30 yards to BAL 17, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 27-C.Jones MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-30-J.Shaw at BAL 14. 30-J.Shaw to BAL 14 for no gain (27-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.33 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model