Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 29 yards to TB 36, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds. PENALTY on TB-57-N.Spence, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 36.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.42 EP
53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model