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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(8:37) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 38 yards to BAL 21, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.34 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model