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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 47

New York Giants 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback. New York Giants challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to TEN 9, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-45-U.Eligwe.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.22 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth +0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model