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Tennessee Titans

8-6 HC Mike Vrabel
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New York Giants

5-9 HC Pat Shurmur
Sunday 2018-12-16 · 13:00 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

TEN
42.0%
NYG
58.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYG defense: +0.007 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • TEN offense: +0.002 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • TEN on 3 more days rest than NYG

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TEN 22 15–29
–
NYG 25 18–32
Projected margin: NYG by 3 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 15

TEN

David Fluellen RB Out Knee
Brian Orakpo LB Out Elbow
Cole Wick TE Out Shoulder

NYG

Odell Beckham WR Out Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 17
–
NYG 0

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 30 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:47 TD TEN (2:47) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – NYG 0
  • Q3 02:25 TD TEN (2:25) 22-D.Henry right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – NYG 0
  • Q4 05:09 FG TEN (5:09) 4-R.Succop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 17 – NYG 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 76%

    (11:30) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to TEN 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (2:47) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 18 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 34%

    (13:46) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback. New York Giants challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to TEN 9, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-45-U.Eligwe.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 31%

    (11:34) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to NYG 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-29-D.Cruikshank.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 14 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 36%

    (6:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to TEN 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:10) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to NYG 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-J.Davis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to TEN 32, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 40 for 8 yards (45-U.Eligwe).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 34%

    (:26) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon right tackle to TEN 45 for 14 yards (86-A.Firkser). Fake Punt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:40) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to NYG 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-J.Davis to NYG 17 for -2 yards (48-B.Brinkley, 88-L.Stocker).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to TEN 31, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-57-N.Stupar.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:17) 6-B.Kern punts 57 yards to NYG 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-J.Davis to NYG 14 for 4 yards (41-B.Trawick, 51-W.Compton). NYG-30-A.Hamilton was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYG-45-U.Eligwe, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at NYG 14.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to TEN 47, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (5:09) 4-R.Succop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 65%

    (2:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 80-J.Davis to TEN 33 for 2 yards (36-L.Sims).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (1:51) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 88-E.Engram (31-K.Byard).

    See the full breakdown →