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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 59

New York Giants 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon right tackle to TEN 45 for 14 yards (86-A.Firkser). Fake Punt.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.78 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 59, worth -2.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP