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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 30

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.46 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model