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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 89

New York Giants 0 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to TEN 47, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.49 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 89, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model