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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 65

New York Giants 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to TEN 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.03 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model