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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 35

New York Giants 0 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(2:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 80-J.Davis to TEN 33 for 2 yards (36-L.Sims).

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.46 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model