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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 4

New York Giants 0 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 88-E.Engram (31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.63 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 4, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.62 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model