4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
WAS Away

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2018-12-16 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 36.0

Win Probability

WAS
53.0%
JAX
47.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to WAS: Cody Kessler (JAX) -0.005 vs Josh Johnson (WAS) +0.478 EPA/dropback (WAS starting Josh Johnson in place of Mark Sanchez)
  • WAS offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.169 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • JAX on 3 more days rest than WAS

Predicted Final Score

WAS 21
–
JAX 20
Projected margin: WAS by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

WAS

Ryan Anderson LB Out Hamstring
Tony Bergstrom G Out Knee
Colt McCoy QB Out Fibula
Jordan Reed TE Out Ankle
Montae Nicholson S Questionable Illness
Chris Thompson RB Questionable Illness
Josh Doctson WR Questionable Concussion
Nick Sundberg LS Questionable Back
Matt Ioannidis DE Questionable Shin
Morgan Moses T Questionable Ankle
Ty Nsekhe T Questionable Knee

JAX

D.J. Chark WR Out Quadricep
Leon Jacobs LB Out Quadricep
Jermey Parnell T Out Knee
Josh Walker G Out Ankle
Josh Lambo K Questionable right Groin
Lerentee McCray DE Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 16
–
JAX 13

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:55 FG WAS (1:55) 3-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – JAX 0
  • Q2 03:26 FG JAX (3:26) 2-K.Forbath 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. WAS 3 – JAX 3
  • Q2 00:23 TD JAX (:23) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to JAX 26, Center-55-A.East. 12-D.Westbrook for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – JAX 9
  • Q3 07:37 FG WAS (7:37) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 6 – JAX 10
  • Q4 11:21 FG JAX (11:21) 2-K.Forbath 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. WAS 6 – JAX 13
  • Q4 05:52 TD WAS (5:52) 8-J.Johnson pass short right to 87-J.Sprinkle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 12 – JAX 13
  • Q4 00:04 FG WAS (:04) 3-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 16 – JAX 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 16 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 47%

    (10:55) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to JAX 5, Center-55-A.East, downed by WAS-51-S.Hamilton.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 15 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to WAS 44, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 13-M.Harris.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 15 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 77%

    (1:55) 3-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (15:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to WAS 31, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-M.Harris to WAS 36 for 5 yards (22-C.Davis).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 19 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (12:59) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to JAX 24, Center-55-A.East. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 33 for 9 yards (22-D.Everett).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 21%

    (11:08) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to WAS 9, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 13-M.Harris.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (8:53) 5-T.Way punts 30 yards to WAS 46, Center-55-A.East, downed by WAS-16-J.Chesson. Punt was partially blocked by 55 of Jacksonville.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 8 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (3:26) 2-K.Forbath 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:55) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to JAX 2, Center-55-A.East, downed by WAS-41-D.Johnson.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 63 yards to WAS 27, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-M.Harris MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 18. 13-M.Harris to WAS 18 for no gain (43-Q.Meeks).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:23) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to JAX 26, Center-55-A.East. 12-D.Westbrook for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (7:37) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to WAS 9, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-M.Harris pushed ob at WAS 15 for 6 yards (26-J.Wilson).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (1:55) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to JAX 11, Center-55-A.East. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 12 for 1 yard (39-A.Alexander).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 85%

    (11:21) 2-K.Forbath 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.