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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 23

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 2-K.Forbath 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.86 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model