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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 71

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to CAR 17, Center-46-J.Condo. 23-K.Barner to CAR 20 for 3 yards (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model