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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

6-9 HC Dan Quinn
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

6-9 HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2018-12-23 · 13:00 ET Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

ATL
53.9%
CAR
46.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ATL: Taylor Heinicke (CAR) -0.041 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.196 EPA/dropback (CAR starting Taylor Heinicke in place of Cam Newton)
  • ATL offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ATL 25 18–32
–
CAR 23 16–30
Projected margin: ATL by 2 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

ATL

Julio Jones WR Questionable Hip

CAR

Cam Newton QB Out right Shoulder
Shaq Thompson LB Out Shoulder
Kawann Short DT Questionable Not Injury Related

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 24
–
CAR 10

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:05 TD CAR (7:05) 6-T.Heinicke pass short left to 80-I.Thomas for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – CAR 6
  • Q1 00:44 TD ATL (:44) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – CAR 7
  • Q2 07:46 FG CAR (7:46) 4-C.Catanzaro 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. ATL 7 – CAR 10
  • Q2 05:35 FG ATL (5:35) 3-M.Bryant 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 10 – CAR 10
  • Q3 15:00 TD ATL (15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 18-C.Ridley for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-M.Addison]. ATL 16 – CAR 10
  • Q3 04:45 TD ATL (4:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 12-M.Sanu for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 23 – CAR 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (14:56) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to ATL 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 38 for 9 yards (53-B.Jacobs).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:23) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to CAR 6, Center-46-J.Condo, fair catch by 23-K.Barner.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 71%

    (7:46) 4-C.Catanzaro 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 90%

    (5:35) 3-M.Bryant 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (:35) 5-M.Bosher punts 46 yards to CAR 37, Center-46-J.Condo, fair catch by 23-K.Barner.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:44) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to ATL 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy. PENALTY on ATL-34-B.Poole, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 25.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (12:13) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to CAR 17, Center-46-J.Condo. 23-K.Barner to CAR 20 for 3 yards (28-J.Bethel).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 33%

    (8:50) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to ATL 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:37) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to CAR 20, Center-46-J.Condo. 23-K.Barner to CAR 33 for 13 yards (36-K.Ishmael; 29-J.Richards).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (8:36) (Shotgun) 6-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Samuel (21-D.Trufant).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 75%

    (6:42) (Shotgun) 6-T.Heinicke sacked at ATL 41 for -11 yards (52-B.Irvin).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 22%

    (4:26) 5-M.Bosher punts 37 yards to CAR 15, Center-46-J.Condo, fair catch by 23-K.Barner.

    See the full breakdown →