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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to CAR 20, Center-46-J.Condo. 23-K.Barner to CAR 33 for 13 yards (36-K.Ishmael; 29-J.Richards).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model