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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 6

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(8:36) (Shotgun) 6-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Samuel (21-D.Trufant).

The Three Options

GO +3.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.72 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 6, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model