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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 30

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(6:42) (Shotgun) 6-T.Heinicke sacked at ATL 41 for -11 yards (52-B.Irvin).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.46 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP