Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 80

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(8:25) 5-D.Jones punts 47 yards to BAL 33, Center-47-M.Windt. 27-C.Jones to LAC 48 for 19 yards (11-G.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.89 EP
67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 80, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model