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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Saturday 2018-12-22 · 20:20 StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

BAL
24.8%
LAC
75.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LAC: Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.294 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) -0.093 EPA/dropback
  • LAC offense: +0.185 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • LAC on 3 more days rest than BAL

Predicted Final Score

BAL 21
–
LAC 29
Projected margin: LAC by 8 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

BAL

Nick Boyle TE Questionable Concussion
Matt Judon LB Questionable Knee
Anthony Levine S Questionable Toe
Alex Lewis G Questionable Shoulder

LAC

Sean Culkin TE Out Back
Austin Ekeler RB Doubtful Neck
Keenan Allen WR Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 22
–
LAC 10

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:47 FG BAL (12:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – LAC 0
  • Q2 02:54 FG BAL (2:54) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 6 – LAC 0
  • Q2 00:45 FG LAC (:45) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. BAL 6 – LAC 3
  • Q3 13:21 TD LAC (13:21) 28-M.Gordon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – LAC 9
  • Q3 12:28 TD BAL (12:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 89-M.Andrews for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 12 – LAC 10
  • Q3 05:41 FG BAL (5:41) 9-J.Tucker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 16 – LAC 10
  • Q4 02:54 TD BAL (2:54) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates to BAL 38 for 11 yards (48-P.Onwuasor). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor), RECOVERED by BAL-25-T.Young at BAL 38. 25-T.Young for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 22 – LAC 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (12:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (11:18) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 39 yards to BAL 28, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 18 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 65%

    (7:04) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 19 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:55) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 49 yards to BAL 17, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (12:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 15-M.Crabtree. Penalty on BAL-15-M.Crabtree, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:25) 5-D.Jones punts 47 yards to BAL 33, Center-47-M.Windt. 27-C.Jones to LAC 48 for 19 yards (11-G.Davis).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 55%

    (6:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to LAC 37 for 2 yards (54-M.Ingram).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

    (2:54) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 90%

    (:45) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 34%

    (:03) 9-J.Tucker 65 yard field goal is No Good, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. 33-D.James at LAC -9 to LAC 22 for 31 yards (86-N.Boyle).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 17 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:17) 5-D.Jones punts 36 yards to BAL 34, Center-47-M.Windt. 27-C.Jones to BAL 32 for -2 yards (34-D.Watt).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 58%

    (5:41) 9-J.Tucker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:05) 5-D.Jones punts 34 yards to BAL 45, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 26%

    (1:35) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to LAC 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 20-D.King.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:46) 5-D.Jones punts 48 yards to BAL 29, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:32) 4-S.Koch punts 54 yards to LAC 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 20-D.King to LAC 26 for 9 yards (46-M.Cox).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 16 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 52%

    (4:46) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to BAL 2, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-11-G.Davis.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 94 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (3:12) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to LAC 37, Center-46-M.Cox. 20-D.King to BAL 39 for 24 yards (10-C.Moore, 54-T.Bowser).