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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 1 at the 39
Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 0
What Actually Happened
(6:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to LAC 37 for 2 yards (54-M.Ingram).
The Three Options
GO
+1.63 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.35 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.15 EP
KICK
-0.34 EP
- 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 45% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT
-0.51 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
