4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 17

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:54) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.06 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model