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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 6

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model