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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 47

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(:03) 9-J.Tucker 65 yard field goal is No Good, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. 33-D.James at LAC -9 to LAC 22 for 31 yards (86-N.Boyle).

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.44 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model