4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 17 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 5-D.Jones punts 36 yards to BAL 34, Center-47-M.Windt. 27-C.Jones to BAL 32 for -2 yards (34-D.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.71 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model