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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 38

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 9-J.Tucker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.92 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model