Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 77

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 16

(14:46) 5-D.Jones punts 48 yards to BAL 29, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.60 EP
61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model