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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 4-S.Koch punts 54 yards to LAC 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 20-D.King to LAC 26 for 9 yards (46-M.Cox).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.92 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model