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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 94

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to LAC 37, Center-46-M.Cox. 20-D.King to BAL 39 for 24 yards (10-C.Moore, 54-T.Bowser).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.63 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 94, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 52, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model