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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 18 at the 35

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.75 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model