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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 19 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(4:55) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 49 yards to BAL 17, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.14 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model