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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 24

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(:13) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.49 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model