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Buffalo Bills

5-10 HC Sean McDermott
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New England Patriots

10-5 HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2018-12-23 · 13:00 ET Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

BUF
24.7%
NE
75.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.111 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.172 vs Josh Allen (BUF) -0.124 EPA/dropback
  • NE defense: +0.023 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

BUF 17 10–24
–
NE 26 19–33
Projected margin: NE by 9 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

BUF

Ryan Lewis CB Out Concussion
Chris Ivory RB Questionable Shoulder

NE

Brandon King LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 12
–
NE 24

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:38 TD NE (7:38) 26-S.Michel up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BUF 0 – NE 6
  • Q2 10:09 TD NE (10:09) 28-J.White left tackle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – NE 13
  • Q3 13:33 FG BUF (13:33) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr. BUF 3 – NE 14
  • Q3 10:11 FG BUF (10:11) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr. BUF 6 – NE 14
  • Q3 05:14 TD NE (5:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 25th TD pass of season, ties Favre & Moon for 2nd-most all-time in a season after turning 40. BUF 6 – NE 20
  • Q4 07:47 FG NE (7:47) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. BUF 6 – NE 24
  • Q4 01:17 TD BUF (1:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 11-Z.Jones for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 12 – NE 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:35) 8-M.Darr punts 47 yards to NE 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-30-L.Pitts.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (12:44) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to BUF 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-43-N.Ebner.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:05) 8-M.Darr punts 35 yards to NE 45, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-30-L.Pitts.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:50) 8-M.Darr punts 55 yards to NE 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF. PENALTY on NE-11-J.Edelman, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards, enforced at NE 21.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 84%

    (:13) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 16 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:59) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to BUF 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 26 for 4 yards (31-J.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:29) 8-M.Darr punts 45 yards to NE 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-J.Edelman to NE 34 for 12 yards (57-L.Alexander). PENALTY on BUF-30-L.Pitts, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 34.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 82%

    (2:28) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 16-R.Foster.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 42%

    (:46) 6-R.Allen punts 33 yards to BUF 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 92%

    (13:33) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (11:27) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to BUF 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 41 for 8 yards (18-M.Slater).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 85%

    (10:11) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 68%

    (5:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 25th TD pass of season, ties Favre & Moon for 2nd-most all-time in a season after turning 40.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 8 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 47%

    (12:07) 6-R.Allen punts 32 yards to BUF 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:06) 8-M.Darr punts 38 yards to BUF 49, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at BUF 24 for 25 yards (80-J.Croom).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (7:47) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:48) 8-M.Darr punts 10 yards to BUF 33, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-44-D.Lacey. Punt partially blocked by NE 18-Slater

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 75%

    (5:10) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Edelman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:06) 6-R.Allen punts 41 yards to BUF 20, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →