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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 42

New England Patriots 14 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(:46) 6-R.Allen punts 33 yards to BUF 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.93 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -1.36 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP