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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 17

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.05 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 17, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP