4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 70

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to BUF 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-43-N.Ebner.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.15 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 28, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model