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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 80

New England Patriots 14 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to BUF 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 41 for 8 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.98 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 37, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP