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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 40

New England Patriots 21 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 6-R.Allen punts 32 yards to BUF 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.82 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP