Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 89

Buffalo Bills 6 – New England Patriots 21

(11:06) 8-M.Darr punts 38 yards to BUF 49, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at BUF 24 for 25 yards (80-J.Croom).

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.84 EP
59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 89, worth -5.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model