Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 77

Buffalo Bills 6 – New England Patriots 24

(6:48) 8-M.Darr punts 10 yards to BUF 33, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-44-D.Lacey. Punt partially blocked by NE 18-Slater

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 77, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model