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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 15

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 80-J.Landry to CIN 9 for 6 yards (21-D.Dennard).

The Three Options

GO +3.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.16 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model