4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Gregg Williams
Sunday 2018-12-23 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CIN
32.5%
CLE
67.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CLE offense: +0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.140 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Jeff Driskel (CIN): -0.074 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CIN 18
–
CLE 24
Projected margin: CLE by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

CIN

Tyler Boyd WR Out Knee
Jordan Evans LB Out Ankle
Tony McRae CB Out Hamstring
Vontaze Burfict LB Questionable Concussion

CLE

Phillip Gaines CB Questionable Knee
Tanner Vallejo LB Questionable Hamstring
Austin Corbett T Questionable Foot
Larry Ogunjobi DT Questionable Biceps
Jabrill Peppers S Questionable Neck
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 18
–
CLE 26

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:23 TD CLE (10:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 85-D.Njoku for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – CLE 6
  • Q2 07:18 TD CLE (7:18) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-D.Fells for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – CLE 13
  • Q2 00:14 FG CLE (:14) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CIN 0 – CLE 16
  • Q3 04:59 TD CLE (4:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 81-R.Higgins for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – CLE 22
  • Q4 15:00 FG CIN (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – CLE 23
  • Q4 07:29 FG CLE (7:29) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CIN 3 – CLE 26
  • Q4 04:56 TD CIN (4:56) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 9 – CLE 26
  • Q4 03:00 TD CIN (3:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass short left to 15-J.Ross for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – CLE 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (12:13) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to CIN 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (9:46) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 42-C.Fejedelem. 42-C.Fejedelem up the middle to CLE 48 for 6 yards (35-J.Whitehead; 25-D.Hilliard).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 12 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 25%

    (7:04) 10-K.Huber punts 35 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-A.Callaway.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 18 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:29) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to CIN 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for 2 yards (27-T.Thomas).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:55) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to CLE 19, Center-46-C.Harris. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 26 for 7 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 94%

    (12:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 80-J.Landry to CIN 9 for 6 yards (21-D.Dennard).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 25%

    (5:02) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 91%

    (:14) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 16 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 34%

    (9:58) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 33 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 95%

    (7:29) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:59) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 42-C.Fejedelem, Center-47-C.Hughlett, recovered by CLE-25-D.Hilliard at CLE 23.