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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 19

Cleveland Browns 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +3.51 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 29, worth -0.18 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model