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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 46

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(9:58) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 33 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.95 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model