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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to CIN 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.74 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model